Cenk Yildiran

Retail sales data reflects the volume of consumer spending, which drives the economy. It also shows whether any inflationary pressures that may exist. When it is thought that consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. GDP, the importance of this indicator is appreciated more easily.

The above chart shows the “Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales” series over January 1992 and March 2023, obtained from FRED. The increasing trend starting from 1992 ends in July 2008. After that date, the series enters a decreasing trend which lasts almost 18 months.
The second up-trend, which started in 2010, ended in April 2020 with the Covid-19 pandemic. This shock was surpassed in June 2020 when the series experienced an all-time high.

Let’s zoom in to see what has happened in the last two years:

Let’s zoom in to see what has happened in the last two years:
The above chart shows the “Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales” series over January 2021 and March 2023. With the dramatic jump in March 2021, the series fluctuated between $235,000 million and $225,000 million during the last 13 months. In March 2023, it was realized as $226,317 million. The value for April 2023 will be vital because it will show whether the $225,000 million level is broken or not.

I will see you in another post!