Industrial production measures how much goods are produced in an economy each month. It is a coincident indicator since it reflects the state of the overall economy.
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) tracks the "Industrial Production: Total Index" (INDPRO) series, which was indexed in 2017 and released monthly. Below you see the INDPRO series over January 1919 and February 2023.
Lets zoom in for the last a few years:
Below, the effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Industrial Production in the USA is evident as the series had a deep in the first quarter of 2020. After that time INDPRO index jumped from that deep and increased steadily by September 2022.
Lets concentrate on the last year:
September 2022 is the highest point for the INDPRO indicator in the last one-year period. Between September 2022 and the end of 2022, a steep decrease in the INDPRO index has alleviated the recession fears.
However, to spot whether the economy experiences a recession you need to look more than one indicator. In coming post I will provide you with those indicators as well.
See you in another time!
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